Monday, March 10th, 2008
Throwing the pie in his own face
The Perpetually Wrong Bill Kristol on Sen. McSame as Bush (hat tip, TBogg):
Buried inside Sunday’s papers was a noteworthy election result. In a special election to replace former Speaker Dennis Hastert, an Illinois Republican, first-time Democratic candidate Bill Foster emerged victorious. George Bush easily carried the district in 2004, as has every recent G.O.P. presidential candidate.
This Democratic pickup suggests that, for now, we’re in an electoral environment more like 2006 than 2004. Foster’s eight-percentage-point improvement on John Kerry’s 2004 performance in the district mirrors the general shift in the electorate from 2004, when Bush won and the Republicans held Congress, to 2006, when the Democrats took over Congress and ran on average about eight points ahead of the G.O.P. Most surveys have shown the Democrats retaining that sizable advantage over the last 16 months. Saturday’s special election would appear to confirm these polls.
Now, I’m not as Smart™ or as Serious™ as Bill Kristol, but even I can see that if an eight-point swing in four years can flip a district from red to blue, then one can hardly describe Bush’s 2004 performance as “easily carry[ing]” a district.
